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Marin 2nd Quarter 2023

We are in a market slowdown, and with 10 fed fund increases in so far in this economic cycle, it's easy to conclude that loan affordability is the most significant contributor. It's a factor, but the biggest impact is coming from inventory. Here we are in the middle of July, when there are often 600-700 homes on the market, and there are only 200 unsold single family homes in all of Marin. There's another 118 homes in contract, so 37% of homes on the market are in contract. As a point of reference, anything over 35% in contract is considered a seller's market, 25%-35% is considered a neutral market, and less than 25% is considered a buyer's market.

Marin prices  and unit sales both dropped in the April-June second quarter period compared to the same time last year. Here's a few Q2 highlights:

  • Marin total median price is $1,800,000, -10% to Q2 last year. Average $/square foot is $987/sf, -8%, and units sold are 539,-28%.
  • Mill Valley median price is $2,600,000, +2%. Average$/square foot is $1,138, -14%, and units sold are 86, -28%.
  • San Anselmo median price is $1,840,000, -20%. Average $/square foot is $1,049, -2%, and unit sales are 29, -38%.
  • Novato median price is $1,225,000, -13%. Average $/square foot isi $655, -10% and unit sales are 108, -33%.

We're currently in a normal summer slowdown, with many people focused on traveling. Look for the market returning to normal in September. With expectations of fewer fed fund rate increases, buyers are more confident to commit and planning to refinance as rates normalize in the future. There seems to more cash, as many of those withdrawls from banks like First Republic are sitting in liquid funds. 

Will sellers be more inclined to put their homes on the market? Well...not so likely. Expect inventory to stay low, and less supply means a return to higher prices. 

Would you like to get more information about the Marin market? Contact me at 415.336.8676! I love real estate, and am always available to for a cup of coffee or a telephone conversation. 

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