Leave a Message

By providing Bernard Link your contact information, you acknowledge and agree to our Privacy Policy and consent to receiving marketing communications, including through automated calls, texts, and emails, some of which may use artificial or prerecorded voices. This consent isn’t necessary for purchasing any products or services and you may opt out at any time. To opt out from texts, you can reply, ‘stop’ at any time. To opt out from emails, you can click on the unsubscribe link in the emails. Message and data rates may apply.

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

Blog

First Republic Bank Chief Investment Officer Economic Comments

We attended an event last week hosted by First Republic Bank with a presentation from Christopher Wolfe, their Chief Investment Officer.

Christopher shared a wealth of data, and here are some of key points we'd like to share with you:

1. Current economic conditions may continue into 2024/2025, with stability increasing in 2025/2026.

2. The Fed historically stops raising rates when the fed fund rate is higher than the inflation rate. (That conflicts with Chairman's Powell's recent comments, but we'll be watching)

3. U.S. recession probability is now at 75%.

4. Consumer inflation forecast for 2022 is 7.9%, 2023 is 3.7%, and 2024 is 2.2%.

5. Unemployment is forecast for 2022 is 3.7%, 2023 is 4.4%, and 2024 is 4.5%.

6. Does not see a Bay Area real estate collapse.

7. Bay Area real estate is suffering from a lack of new housing stock.

8. Rent costs will to continue to go up.

Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

First Republic Bank Chief Investment Officer Economic Comments

Work With Us